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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or merely the greatest shock.

But this year's competition is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions declining and recent underperformers ascending collectively. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this wild and fun year, he's facing five other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a typical year!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

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